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Uncertainty Elicitation Tool

Welcome to the MATCH Uncertainty Elicitation Tool. Descriptions of the buttons in the toolbar at the top of the screen are given below. Instructions and further help are available by clicking on the 'Help?' button.

Total number of placed chips = 0
Median =
Lower Quartile =
Upper Quartile =
P1: P(MIN < X < ) =
P2: P( < X < MAX ) =
P0: P(MIN < X < ) =
Median =
Lower Tertile =
Upper Tertile =
Median =
P1: P( ) =
P2: P( ) =
Distribution
Scaled Beta
rd percentile =
percentile =
0:00
Show Administration Link
Save Results

Quartile Method

  1. Specify your median value, either by typing it in the Median box, or by clicking and dragging in the Median rectangle, using the mouse. Your probability of the uncertain quantity lying in the green section should be the same as your probability of the uncertain quantity lying in the blue section.
  2. Specify your lower quartile, either by typing it in the Lower quartile box, or by clicking and dragging in the Lower quartile rectangle. Your probability of the uncertain quantity lying in the light green section should be the same as your probability of the uncertain quantity lying in the dark green section.
  3. Specify your upper quartile, either by typing it in the Upper quartile box, or by clicking and dragging in the Upper quartile rectangle. Your probability of the uncertain quantity lying in the light blue section should be the same as your probability of the uncertain quantity lying in the dark blue section.
  4. When you have finished, click on Fitting & Feedback on the toolbar.

Fitting & Feedback

Distributions

Scaled beta


Note that L and U are the lower and upper limits in your chosen range.

Toolbar Legend

Help Display/hide the Help window
Fitting & Feedback Display/hide the Elicited distribution and the Fitting and Feedback window
Complete Complete this elicitation session
Credits Display/hide information about us, the tool, and methods to contact us
Citations

If you use this tool in any published research, please could you cite it as:

David E. Morris, Jeremy E. Oakley, John A. Crowe, A web-based tool for eliciting probability distributions from experts, Environmental Modelling & Software, Volume 52, February 2014, Pages 1-4, ISSN 1364-8152, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2013.10.010.

The MATCH Uncertainty Elicitation Tool was developed by the Universities of Nottingham and Sheffield as part of the MATCH research project led by Brunel University London and funded by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council.

This tool was produced by Ed Morris and Jeremy Oakley as part of the MATCH project, and you are welcome to contact us with comments or questions.

The tool is based on the freely available SHELF package of elicitation templates and software, and further guidance on elicitation is available within the SHELF package. A recommended textbook on elicitation methods is

O' Hagan, A., Buck, C. E., Daneshkhah, A., Eiser, J. E., Garthwaite, P. H., Jenkinson, D. J., Oakley, J. E. and Rakow, T. (2006). Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Expert Probabilities. Chichester: Wiley.

Citations

If you use this tool in any published research, please could you cite it as:

David E. Morris, Jeremy E. Oakley, John A. Crowe, A web-based tool for eliciting probability distributions from experts, Environmental Modelling & Software, Volume 52, February 2014, Pages 1-4, ISSN 1364-8152, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2013.10.010.

Ranges
Lower Limit
Upper Limit

Input Mode
Roulette  •
Quartile  •
Tertile  •
Probability  •
Hybrid  •
Roulette Options
Number of Bins
Height of Grid

Are you sure that you want to complete this eliciation session?

No more changes can be made after the session is completed and this process cannot be undone.

You can only open the Fitting & Feedback window once you have selected an input mode.

Are you sure that you want to restart the eliciation session?

The current session will be completed and no more changes can be made. This process cannot be undone.

You can only open the Text Output window once you have selected an input mode.

The MATCH Uncertainty Elicitation Tool was developed by the Universities of Nottingham and Sheffield as part of the MATCH research project led by Brunel University London and funded by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council.